The “Rally-around-the-flag effect”: How Iran’s military actions could significantly bolster the morale of the Pakistani army on the domestic front.
In a reciprocal maneuver, the Pakistan army delivered pinpoint strikes on militant hideouts in Iran, responding swiftly to an unprecedented attack in Balochistan by Tehran. This tit-for-tat exchange has heightened tensions in an already volatile region, drawing attention from global powers such as China and Russia, urging restraint on both sides.
Despite the escalating conflict, both Iran and Pakistan emphasize their desire to avoid further escalation. The Pakistani military issued a statement, referring to the two nations as “brotherly countries” and advocating for dialogue and cooperation to resolve bilateral issues.
Yet, amidst these diplomatic overtures, the recent escalation might be providing the Pakistani army with a boost in its domestic image. Michael Kugelman, Director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center, highlights the potential for a “rally-around-the-flag effect” following Pakistan’s retaliatory strike against Iran.
Kugelman notes, “Don’t overlook the political boost Pakistan’s military could get from this retaliation against Iran.” He suggests that despite public anger over the crackdown on Imran Khan and his party, the retaliatory strike could generate a temporary surge in patriotic sentiment.
The Pakistani army, facing criticism for its actions against Imran Khan and his supporters, may find relief in this calibrated response against Iran. Social media, previously critical of the military, witnessed some users expressing support for a decisive stance against Iran.
The looming specter of regional conflict, particularly following recent events involving Iran, Hamas, and Russia, has the potential to evoke jingoistic sentiments in Pakistan. This surge in patriotism could play into the hands of the military establishment, potentially bolstering their support, especially as the nation approaches elections.
Reports indicate that the people of Islamabad have largely supported Pakistan’s strikes inside Iran, showcasing a positive reception to the military’s actions. As the threat of war hovers in the region, the Pakistani army’s calculated response may serve to quell domestic dissent and garner popular support, turning the tide in its favor.